It started on Tuesday the 2nd March, with a PowerPoint presentation by Google (www.google.com) representatives in which Google's Chief Financial Officer George Reyes stated that advertising revenue for the company could slow in the future.
The reaction from the financial markets was dramatic. Up to 13% of Google stocks were reported to have been sold off before financial heavyweights, Goldman Sachs among them, weighed in with reassuring statements about the long-term stability of Google Inc to first halt, then pull back the losses sustained.
The incident comes in the shadow of the biggest one day drop in share value for Google stock after fourth-quarter profits failed to live up to analysts' predictions.
So why is Google struggling to fit in with the markets?
Google, as ever, is keeping tight lipped. This seems like a sensible precaution given a) the precedent this would set and b) the market uncertainty that would inevitably result - it's easy to imagine the analysts thinking: 'Why are Google talking now?', 'Why are they worried?'. In fact, I can see the share price plummet just thinking about it.
Financial markets depend on trust and the availability of information, and we are seeing now that as Google gets closer to the Fortune 500, so their policy of keeping quiet rubs up against other 'transparent' blue-chip companies.
And what of the PowerPoint presentation (http://investor.google.com / pdf / 20060302_analyst_day.pdf) itself? The central worry is that Google has monetised the online advertising market to the point that any future growth will come from more traditional market growth and diversification, slowing growth to more traditional levels from the stratospheric rate currently being achieved. And so it looks like Google might just become another big company with slow, steady, growth - apparently this is a bad thing?
Attention has also focussed on the unveiling of a 70-20-10 Product Framework graphic, showing the core 70% of the Google business to be Search and Ad revenue, while in the 20% band we find Gmail, Google Earth, and Local Search, with Orkut and the Google Pack amongst the 10%. Concerns are raised because, to take one example, Google Talk shows up in the 20% - but no-one uses it; Google Book Search is also there yet is nowhere near completion and may even be a serious infringement of copyright (http://news.bbc.co.uk / 1 / hi / technology / 4320642.stm).
The general reading is that Google seem hesitant to stake their claim on the future definitively and are expanding into many areas rather than targeting specific avenues for growth. But then, they have the money and they have the know-how - so why not?
Google's core concepts do seem to link up. The 'infinite storage' GDrive seems to fit with the previous Google concept behind the Google Desktop - that of one storage system with multiple points of access. Their vision seems to be of a less possessive society focussing instead on flexibility and usability, 'terminals' rather than 'desktops'.
It could be an exciting company. But then: isn't it already?
















